劳动力市场复苏

核心摘要

美联储加息25个基点后，Nancy Lazar判断美国经济稳健，劳动力市场快速复苏，流动性充裕支撑消费韧性，但2027年工资通胀可能扩大。

干货提炼

劳动力市场复苏

• [明确判断] 每周失业救济申请同比下降10%，说明劳动力市场正在快速愈合，裁员减少，就业增加。
• [明确判断] 8月非农就业报告比表面看起来更强劲，失业救济申请是洞察美联储政策思路的镜子。

流动性与通胀粘性

• [明确判断] 资产负债表虽从峰值回落，但仍处高位，向华尔街提供大量流动性，支撑经济并加剧通胀粘性。
• [明确判断] M2货币供应增长7%，银行贷款增长7%，国防支出强劲，这些指标预示名义经济活动保持强劲，企业收入增长获支撑。
• [明确判断] 美联储的通胀扩散指数显示太多商品价格以0.3%或以上的速度上涨，表明通胀正在变得粘性。

2027年工资通胀风险

• [明确判断] 强劲劳动力市场将在2027年传导至工资通胀，形成更广泛的通胀压力。

消费韧性来源

• [明确判断] 名义消费者支出增长6%，美国运通收入增长8%，Visa收入增长12%，多个指标验证消费强劲。
• [明确判断] 高收入和中收入消费者驱动消费：股票市场由流动性支撑推动高收入群体消费；建筑、制造等高薪岗位工资增长4%，推动中收入消费者变强。
• [明确判断] 低收入消费者处境困难，受汽油价格和低收入岗位拖累，但消费总量因中高收入群体而保持坚挺。

高光金句

• ❝ He said one of the key indicators, economic indicators he's watching are weekly unemployment claims. It's a hard statistic, great historical relationship with the labor market, and claims are down 10% on a year-over-year basis, which means the labor market is healing really quickly. ❞
• ❝ Everybody's treated equal. High, middle, low-income consumers are treated equal in the consumer confidence numbers. It's a measure of people. Whereas nominal consumer spending is a dollar metric, right? And so the high middle-income consumers drive that particular indicator. ❞
• ❝ 7% money supply growth, 7% bank loan growth, very strong government spending right now led by defense. That all suggests nominal activity is going to stay strong, which is very, very supportive of corporate revenue, corporate revenue growth. ❞

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